What is Investment Research?#
Investment research can be understood as the strategy selection and planning process before taking action.
In simple terms, it is about how to filter projects and decide which to participate in and which to avoid, as we cannot cover all opportunities.
For example, why can some experts successfully participate in high-return projects (with a win rate of about 70%), while ordinary users only achieve 30%? This is the core of investment research. The current airdrop industry is no longer a simple following phase; even if experts fully share strategies, it is difficult for us to follow all of them. Especially in the era of content mining, where the authenticity of information is hard to discern, how to choose and invest accurately becomes key.
1. Timing (Early Stage)#
Early involvement ensures compliance with airdrop snapshot rules; otherwise, subsequent efforts may not bridge the gap.
"The earlier you participate in all dApps within the ecosystem, the more potential rewards there are."
Early participation is crucial; if missed, it is advisable to abandon the project to avoid ineffective investment.
Three Examples:#
- ① strknet: Due to late involvement, it missed the minimum threshold by a few days.
- ② zkbridge: Only entered after the Panda King Odyssey ended, missing out on the key Panda King NFT, receiving only a small low guarantee.
- ③ initia: Did not participate in the first phase, could not join later, resulting in zero returns.
2. Investment Amount and Team Endorsement (Market Consensus)#
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Projects that raise over ten million yuan and are led by top institutions like a16z and Binance Labs usually have more generous airdrops.
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Projects that involve or are endorsed by key components of public chains (such as DEX) often come with high premiums during airdrops (e.g., Jupiter on Solana, Walrus on Sui).
Investment amounts and teams need to have strong capabilities (reflecting first-tier market backing and consensus). -
① For example, projects with financing amounts exceeding ten million and led by a16z or Binance are preferable. Projects invested by Binance have a high probability of being listed on Binance, as Binance is a leading platform in the crypto market, providing high premiums and exit liquidity.
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② Team Support: If key roles in public chains (like DEX) receive participation or endorsement from the public chain team, the wealth effect is significant. For instance, the positions of Jup in Solana and Walrus in Sui lead to higher premiums during airdrops, based on the logic that only well-funded project parties are willing to be generous with airdrops.
3. Track Imagination (Mainstream + Core)#
- Aligning with current mainstream narratives (such as L2 in 2023, DEX in 2024) helps attract hot money and community participation.
- "Content mining" is set to become a hot track in 2025, where everyone can publish articles and earn rewards, driving enthusiasm and capital inflow.
Track imagination (aligning with mainstream and core, reflecting the current market's profit-making style).
For example, the mainstream narratives of L2 for Ethereum scaling in 2023, DEX in 2024, and content mining in 2025 allow users to become KOLs, earning rewards through research tweets, attracting hot money speculation and community popularity.
4. Cost Accounting (Difficulty Level)#
- For small players with limited funds, low-threshold, zero-lockup projects are optimal, losing only time and not principal.
- Excessive staking or reliance on sign-in interactions can lead to total loss from a single contract accident.
Cost accounting (profit-loss ratio): If a project is of high quality but an individual cannot participate (e.g., sign-in types are unfavorable for manpower, staking types are difficult for small capital risk control), then it is not a good project. Nine times out of ten, one earns interest, but a single theft results in total loss. Therefore, preference is given to low-cost projects that only lose time and not money.
To profit from airdrops, one must select projects well in the early stage, persist in execution in the mid-stage, and reap results in the late stage.
As airdrop returns decline in 2024, the number of participants in 2025 will decrease, with more people exiting this long-cycle, high-investment, time-consuming activity, while those who remain will shift towards clear targets (such as exchange airdrops) and small investment (like becoming KOLs) strategies.
For those who persist, investment research needs to go beyond simply looking at financing and teams, taking more measures. The current distribution methods may become obsolete, and new narratives will take over, but only participation can verify the authenticity of projects.
However, projects that are highly certain, low in difficulty, time-saving, labor-saving, and can be operated in bulk are hard to find again. How do we respond? This is worth pondering.
from——@Beijing Teacher
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